Hays, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

037
FXUS63 KDDC 051610
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mild Sunday

- High fire danger Monday in the southwest

- Unsettled weather for the second half of the business week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A very nice day to end the weekend is expected today. Highs today
will be near perfect with values in the low 70s. A light southerly
wind is expected today, although winds could become light and variable
at times. The good news with these weak winds is that the fire danger
for today will be nil given the weak winds. A dry airmass will prevail
today, and afternoon relative humidity will still bottom out in the
10-20% range. Otherwise, the tranquil weather pattern will continue
into the overnight hours and lows will be in the upper 30s to lower
40s.

On Monday a warm front will lift northward and will probably stall
out as a stationary front, bisecting west-central Kansas. To the
south of this boundary, a warm and very dry airmass will prevail
during the day. Breezing southerly winds are expected south of the
boundary. The combination of highs in the mid to upper 70s, low afternoon
relative humidity, and breezy/gusty winds will set the stage for
another Red Flag day across far southwest Kansas. A Fire Weather
Watch has been issued to account for this high fire danger Monday.
Please do not burn!

A very weak upper level wave is forecast to move across western Kansas
Tuesday. This may lead to some scattered light showers across the
FA during this period. Low level moisture will remain limited, so
overall precipitation amounts will be on the very light side.

Downslope flow will strengthen across western Kansas Wednesday. 850
hPa temperatures are expected to increase into the 15C-20C range.
This supports mixdown temperatures well into the 80s across southwest
Kansas. A weak dryline looks to form during the day and will have
to watch across far western Kansas near the Colorado border for any
increasing fire danger. To the east of the dryline, higher dewpoints
(most likely in the 40s), will lead to higher afternoon relative
humidity and thus a lower fire danger for the central and eastern
zones.

A cold front is forecast to traverse across the state early Thursday.
This will lead to to highs in the 60s north to 70s south. An unsettled
weather pattern is forecast by the long range models and their ensemble
counterparts as we head into the end of the business week. Gulf moisture
will advect northward into Kansas under broad southwesterly flow
aloft. This will give us the weather pattern for showers and thunderstorms
entering the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Monday. Light and variable winds through mid/late afternoon
are forecast to turn southeasterly 5 to 15kt generally after 23-01Z
this evening as surface high pressure in eastern Kansas pushes off
to the east.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Winds should be weak enough for no major fire weather concerns Sunday.

Attention then turns to Monday. A warm front will lift northward through
the day. To the south of the warm front, warm and dry air will prevail.
Highs should peak into the mid to upper 70s. Afternoon relative humidity
is expected to bottom out in the 10-15% range. Breezy southerly winds
are expected through the day. This will result in likely Red Flag
conditions for far southwest Kansas. A Fire Weather Watch is now
effect to headline the increasing fire danger Monday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...JJohnson
FIRE WEATHER...Sugden